Afghanistan’s Future If Taliban Return to Power


What lies ahead for Afghanistan as US force withdraws

The US is all set to withdraw its military troops from Afghanistan after finally striking a treaty between the Taliban and itself.

With all the foreign military troops gone, there lies a possibility that the country will again go back to its initial stage of Civil War and corruption.

Looking at the current situation, it is also possible that the Taliban could again rise to power and bring the whole country under its regime.

If something like that happens, what could it mean for Afghanistan? To understand that picture, let’s look at what the Taliban is and how it originated.

Back-story of the Taliban

In the early 1980s, Mujahedeen guerilla warriors funded by the external forces and the US waged war against Soviet troops stationed in Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union decided to pull out of the Afghan country in 1989. It led to the collapse of the Afghan government as it was too much dependent on outside forces.

1992 marked the formation of the Mujahedeen government, but it couldn’t stay for long due to infighting.

The result was the formation of an Islamic fundamentalist militant group mainly dominated by Pashtuns called the Taliban.

This group started its military campaign from the south in 1994, and by 1996 it captured the Afghan Capital.

After the terrorist attacks of 9/11 on the twin tower of the World Trade Centre and Pentagon, US-led Nato forces invaded Afghan to capture the mastermind of this attack, Osama Bin Laden.

The escaped refugees formed Quetta Shura, the Taliban Leadership Council who led insurgency from Pak in Afghanistan.

Almost all the terrorists and Taliban refugees reportedly ran off to Quetta, Pak.

Taliban remobilized in 2004 and started a bloody war against the new Afghan government and its supporting troops, costing the lives of almost 170,000 people, out of which 51,613 were Afghan civilians.

Their regime marked many atrocities and strict religious following by the citizens. Some of them included torturing girls and not allowing them to have primary education.

Bamiyan, destroyed giant buddhas

They were also forcibly married, sexually harassed and not given the freedom even to move freely.

The citizens were not allowed to watch television, so that western culture could not influence them. Taliban destroyed Budha sculptures and temples that were present in the country.

Finally, US-led NATO troops ended the war after 20 years of fighting, after which the Afghan army and police took over control.

The US deployed 17000 soldiers to stay and assist the Afghan forces. Knowing that the war between them will be eternal, the US started direct talks with the Taliban under the Trump government.

The result of this talk was the US-Taliban treaty in September 2020 at Doha.

According to the deal, the Taliban agreed to reduce violence, guarantee not hosting any terrorist refugees, and participate in Intra-Afghan negotiations.

In return, the US government will remove its troops by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attack.

What Lies Ahead For Afghanistan?

However, the US warned the Taliban that the US would not recognize any military takeover, but the probability of Taliban resurgence remains high.

The US military troops are already moving out. Since the treaty, an insecure environment has enveloped the embassies stationed in Afghanistan.

The personnel working here are fleeing out of the country.

Many reasons attributed to this include lack of capable government, after effect of the foreign military campaign, regional rivalries, and too much dependence on foreign financial and military aid.

The time doesn’t seem far when Talibanis groups will capture Kabul and throw off the already corrupt government.

The Taliban already started mobilizing its fighters which in 2021 estimated 75,000. In past weeks, the militant group already captured Herat province along with some other border towns and regions in Afghan.

These all could lead to a regime that local citizens feared, where they had to go through torture, beatings, and follow strict Islamic interpretations.

The Taliban government mentioned that they would provide facilities for girls and grant them rights, but their earlier rule showed a different scenario.

 If the Taliban rose to power, it will mark the end of prolonged war and regional infighting.

Still, the world couldn’t ignore the fact that the Taliban, during its last regime (1996-2001), controlled the citizen of Afghanistan and exploited them.

The US troops are taking flights with people fundamentals rights at risk.

The rule of dictatorship has never given good fruits, and if the Taliban decides to take over the Afghan government, other countries will be forced to intervene.

Even after many years of wars and treaties, peace for Afghanistan feels like a lost dream.


Punita Sinha
Punita Sinha
Hi curious minds, my name is Punita Sinha. I'm pursuing an undergraduate degree in Economics Hons. from the University of Delhi (final year) with a minor in journalism. I consider myself an avid learner and observer. Writing has always been my passion whether it's prose, poetry or articles. And I think that to be the reason for my attraction towards journalism ever since my childhood. Journalism for me is something that can bring a big difference in society through words and as a writer, I believe in the power of words more than anything. So here I'm to use this opportunity and make a change by using this power.


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