Climate change will lead to growing international tensions. The United States intelligence community has warned in a bleak assessment. The first-ever National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change looks at the impact of climate on national security through to 2040. Countries will argue over how to respond, and the effect will be felt most in poorer countries, which are least able to adapt.
Concept of COP26:
The report also warns of the risks if some countries develop futuristic geographic, scientific technologies. The 27-page assessment is the collective view of all 18 United States intelligence agencies. It is their first such look ahead on what climate means for national security.
The report paints a picture of a world failing to co-operate, leading to dangerous competition and instability. It has been issued just ahead of President Joe Biden attending next month’s COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, seeking international agreement. The Paris climate agreement has the aim to set 1.5degree Celsius as the limiting warming degree.
To this demand of the Paris Climate Agreement, almost all the countries agreed to it. Most of the countries throughout the world had signed this agreement. This agreement also states that this would decrease the affected land area by 24 per cent.
This is to be considered more for today, but the upcoming time is significantly less than the final warning. Moreover, this type of analysis was never done before. It is the first research of its kind.
The ISIMIP impact:
To fix the long-term undergoing age-dependent utmost event which was in the light, the scientists took a graph of many multi-model climatic impact protection and projection. They got this from the ISIMIP. The ISIMIP was building its project along with the work from dozens of research groups throughout the globe. The scientists, geographers, and researchers collected this and mixed it with the nationwide life expectancy data.
This document of the findings was printed in the journal named ‘Science.’ During their complete lifetime on this planet, a child who is born in this year will undergo on an average three times more wildfires, three or four times more droughts, more and more crop failure and flood, ten times more heatwaves as compared to a person who is around 60 years old.
This study is based on the findings from Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP). This scenario is about the current greenhouse gas emission reduction, which the government has pledged to.
Katja Frieler’s interview:
This will be one of the topics at the forthcoming climate summit of the world, and this is named COP26, and it will be held in Glasgow. “Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future, “told Wim Thiery. He is an author from the Vrije Universiteit of Brussel.
Thiery said, “We even have strong reasons to think that our calculations underestimate the actual increase that young people will face, “Katja Frieler said, “The good news is we can indeed take much of the climate burden from our children’s shoulders if we limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by phasing out fossil fuel use.”
Katja Frieler is the co-author of this study. Moreover, she is the leading scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “If we increase climate protection from current emission reduction pledges and get in line with a 1.5-degree target, we will reduce young people’s potential exposure to extreme events on average by 24 per cent globally,” told Katja Frieler.
Climate change in Europe:
“For North America, it is minus 26 per cent, for Europe and Central Asia minus 28 per cent, and in the Middle East and North Africa even minus 39 per cent. This is a huge opportunity.” Explained Katja Frieler.
By this, in one of the scenarios about the present inadequate climate plans and policies, the horrible heatwaves that affect about 15 percent of the worldwide land area currently may even get a rise to up to 46 percent. This is triple that of the first figure. So it will get too high by the end of this century.
