At the meeting in Glasgow last year, PM Narendra Modi said that India’s would do more to meet its climate goals. He made five promises, and that was what he called the “Panchamrit.” Two of these were changes to goals that had already been set but were now made official.
Nine months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a few headline-grabbing promises at the climate change conference in Glasgow last year, the government converted two of those into official targets on Wednesday.
India’s NDC, or nationally determined commitments, have been updated with these two promises, both of which improve existing targets. The 2015 Paris Agreement requires every country to set self-determined climate targets that are updated every few years. India submitted its first NDC in 2015, before the Paris Agreement.
India’s original NDC had three 2030 goals: * 33 to 35% reduction in emissions intensity from 2005 levels
* At least 40% of all electricity produced must come from non-fossil renewable sources.
* More trees to create an extra carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Last year at the meeting in Glasgow, Modi said that India would do more to meet its climate goals. He made five promises, so the Indians called it “Panchamrit,” which means “five ingredients.” Two of these were changes to existing goals that made them more ambitious. These are the ones that were made official and added to the updated NDC on Wednesday.
Accordingly,
*Instead of just 33 to 35%, India will now cut its emissions intensity by at least 45% from 2005 levels by 2030.
*By 2030, it will now make sure that at least 50% of the electricity it uses comes from renewable sources, instead of just 40%.
* The goal for forestry hasn’t been reached.
Modi also said that India’s installed electricity generation capacity in 2030 would be based on non-fossil fuels. Also, he promised that the country would avoid one billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
These two promises aren’t official goals. These goals are linked to others, so any progress on official targets will affect them.
Modi announced a net-zero goal for India by 2070. Net zero is when a country’s greenhouse gas emissions are completely offset by natural processes like photosynthesis or futuristic technologies. Net zero is a long-term goal and not eligible for the NDC, which seeks 5- to 10-year climate targets from countries.
India’s Progress
The upward revision of two climate targets — emissions intensity and non-fossil sources in electricity generation — is expected. India will meet its goals before 2030.
In 2016, the last year for which official numbers are available, India’s emissions intensity was 24% lower than in 2005. The 33 to 35% reduction target is likely met or close to meet. A further 10-12% reduction from here seems doable, even though these reductions get harder to achieve.
At least 40% of electricity now comes from non-fossil fuels. 41.5 percent of India’s 403 GW installed electricity capacity is now powered by non-fossil fuels, according to the power ministry. Wind, solar, and other renewables account for 28% of this capacity, and hydropower for 11%. With most new capacity additions in renewable energy, a 10% rise in non-fossil fuels in electricity generation is not unrealistic.
Glasgow’s promises
Two promises Modi made in Glasgow remain unfulfilled. In 2030, India’s non-fossil fuel electricity generation capacity will reach 500 GW. He said India would cut at least 1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
Image source: indianexpress.com
Both promises were questionable. 500 GW non-fossil fuel electricity capacity by 2030 is difficult. Over 236 GW, or 58.5%, of the current installed capacity of 403 GW comes from fossil fuels, while non-fossil fuels like solar, wind, hydropower, and nuclear make up only 167 GW. To reach 500 GW, non-fossil capacity additions must triple in 10 years.
Total installed electricity capacity has more than doubled in the last 10 years (from 199 GW in 2012 to 403 GW now), but not just because of renewables. While renewables have grown, so have fossil fuels.
Even more problematic was the promise to reduce emissions by 1 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030. It was also unclear. India had never set an absolute emission reduction target before. It was announced without much preparation. India has no 2030 emissions projections. Uncertainty surrounds the emissions path to 2030. The target was meaningless without a baseline.
Why the world can’t quit coal?
India’s annual projections could rise from 3.3 billion tonnes in 2018 to 4 billion tonnes by 2030. India may emit 35 to 40 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030. A billion-tonne reduction would be 2.5% to 3%. If India meets its official targets, avoided emissions could exceed 1 billion tonnes, say some officials.
The updated NDC removes some confusion from the PM’s Glasgow speech. The written speech confused ‘energy’ and ‘renewables’
Financial and technological support to india’s
Environment Secretary R.P. Gupta told The Indian Express in Glasgow, Scotland, last year that India’s new climate commitments were likely to depend on how much money and technology developed countries were willing to give. He had said that India might not be able to reach its higher goals without this kind of help from other countries.
The updated NDC does talk about the need for low-cost international finance and the transfer of technology, but it does not make meeting goals dependent on their availability. This was also true of the NDC before this one.
