On September 5th, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressed the Parivartan Sankalp Rally in the poll-bound Ahmedabad, Gujarat. Here, he promised eight “guarantees,” something that parties don’t do unless elections are around the corner.
A few days later, while addressing the rally of the central scheme beneficiaries, BJP state chief CR Patil claimed how Kejriwal’s “guarantees,” as announced by AAP, would cost the public exchequer 41,607 crores annually. He pointed out how the figure far overshoots the annual budget of the state.
These two instances pointedly manifest the pervasive effect Kejriwal’s presence has had on the Gujarat elections. Kejriwal’s models of “guarantees” and social welfare (otherwise derided as “revdi”) have actually transformed the electoral landscape of Gujarat. Now the discourse is centered around how much the government can do for the people, as opposed to the conventional format of ideological orientations.
The Battle of State Models
The BJP has long boasted about its impeccable Gujarat model, but cracks have developed in this much-revered model of late. The sudden ouster of Vijay Rupani; the stripping of key portfolios of two ministers in Bhupendra Patel’s reign; agitations by government employees for grade pay; and the Hooch tragedy, which led to the loss of 42 individuals, are some of the issues which the Opposition is seeking to capitalize upon.
While Kejriwal has promised a “Delhi model” for Gujarat post-victory, the Congress has suddenly begun talking about its own “Rajasthan Model.” This comes after the responsibility for Gujarat elections has been delegated to Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former Health Minister and AICC General Secretary Raghu Sharma.
Since May, Kejriwal has visited the poll-bound state at least a dozen times, each time announcing a guarantee and a town hall. Congress is not far behind, having announced eight promises. Interestingly, some of the guarantees overlap, the most prominent of which is the 300 units of free electricity and jobs for the unemployed.
Fear In The BJP’s Minds
While BJP veterans claim adamantly that there is no space for AAP in Gujarat, the younger leaders of the party admit that if “even one MLA of AAP wins, it will be bad” for the BJP. The fear is not so much for the upcoming Gujarat elections as it is for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
When the Lieutenant General of Delhi, VK Saxena, was raising questions with the AAP government regarding the amended excise policy, Kejriwal was meeting the victims of the hooch tragedy in Bhavnagar, Gujarat. The constituency belonged to the Education Minister of Gujarat, Jitu Vaghani, with whom Manish Sisodia has had a direct confrontation regarding the state of schools in Gujarat.
The frequent clashes between the AAP and the BJP workers in Gujarat, especially in the bastion of its leader and BJP State Chief CR Patil, point out the nervousness in the BJP camp. The clashes began when the AAP emerged as the main Opposition in the Surat Municipal Corporation in February 2021, having won 27 seats out of 120.
Patil previously claimed that he would resign if the BJP won even one seat fewer than 182. However, currently, he is avoiding quoting any victory numbers. Patil had also claimed in 2020 that the BJP was a numerically strong party (boasting of 1.13 crore workers) and hence they need not “import anyone” for elections. However, since then, he has brought in disgruntled Congress leaders such as Hardik Patel, Jairajsinh Parmar, and Vishwanath Vaghela.
AAP Moving From Strength to Strength
Having won two seats with a vote share of 6.77%, AAP is now declared a state party in Goa. If it gets recognized as a state party in one more state, it will be proclaimed a national party. Accordingly, AAP is contesting all the seats in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat.
A week ago, Kejriwal taunted the Centre regarding the ED raids on Sisodia, claiming that it would lead to a 4% rise in AAP’s vote share in Gujarat and that if he is arrested, then it could rise to 6%.
Leaders of the BJP and Congress often claim that AAP’s tenure in Punjab will leave it exposed since governing a full-fledged state like Punjab is a different ball game altogether and is nothing like ruling a semi-state like Delhi.
However, the sheer number of “Ek Mauko Kejriwal Ne” painted brazenly on the developing Metro Project pillars in Ahmedabad or the number of autos carrying a brightly smiling picture of the AAP Supremo show that the AAP has created a storm. It enjoys a particular appeal among the middle classes and the underprivileged sections of Gujarat.
While the Congress has been calling AAP the “B-Team of BJP,” Kejriwal’s silence on the release of the convicts in the Bilkis Bano case and his cries of Vande Mataram and Bharat Mata Ki Jai in his rallies show that he is out to get the Hindu vote.
Whether the AAP emerges on the national scene as a prominent party remains to be seen in the future. But for now, it’s hard to deny the agenda-setting capacities of the AAP. It won’t be wrong to say that the AAP has managed to create a splash amid the BJP wave. Like a former BJP Rajya Sabha MP said, “If nothing, AAP has managed to keep our cadres alert, which is good.”
