Disputes and disagreements between Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United)-JD(U) have ignited a new, unstable dichotomy. The alliance has collapsed and so does the Nitish Kumar’s strategy. The collapse has resulted in the creation of uncertainties and tension.
As the winner of the last election held in 2020, Nitish Kumar solemnly pledged as the Chief Minister of Bihar. The next election was to be regulated in 2025 but the alliance fell flat before the end of its tenure. Nitish Kumar had a meeting with the Bihar Governor, Phagu Chauhan at 4 pm on August 9, 2022, in order to file his resignation.
From his resignation to making a fresh alliance, Nitish Kumar would chair the position of Chief Minister for the 8th time. Tejashwi Yadav would be the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan; oath ceremony would commence at 2 pm, at Raj Bhawan, on August 10, 2022 (Wednesday).
This is not the first time when Nitish-led JD(U) has flipped and shattered ties with BJP as they have done it twice in the last 8 years.
The opposition party Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav shook hands with the JD(U) to form JD(U)-RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (grand-alliance).
The Congress and the Left parties – CPI-ML-Liberation, CPI, and CPM also came along and lent their support to Nitish.
The new ‘Mahagathbandhan’ – consisting RJD-JDU-Congress-Left, jointly has 164 MLAs in the 243-member state assembly.
The number of members is comfortably more than the number mandated to form the government. The RJD is the single largest party with 79 MLAs, followed by the BJP with 77 MLAs.
A Few months back in June, BJP administered a shining glory and successfully allied in Maharashtra. Meanwhile, the shrewd Chief Minister of Bihar has staved off the clever gameplay by saffron party strategists’ to allegedly bring in the Eknath Shinde card. The plan was all set to come into play through R.C.P. Singh, a close aide of Nitish until he resigned from the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U] last month.
Momentarily, through the tumbledown of the BJP-JD(U) alliance, Nitish Kumar has put obstacles to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan for the 2024 Lok sabha re-election.
“Our party colleagues and friends desired that we should leave the BJP’s company. I have abided by their sentiments,” said Nitish. He has cryptically acknowledged that tying knots with NDA, back in 2017 was a mistake and everybody should forget about it.
What is the root justification behind the collapse and Nitish Kumar’s flip?
The drift between the JD(U) and BJP was exemplified with each passing day, particularly after the reduction in the number of MLAs on the JD(U)’s side was reduced to 43. The BJP still stood at 74 amidst the 2020 assembly elections.
According to Nitish Kumar, the BJP government has continually sabotaged him. First, they replaced Sushil Kumar Modi and Nandkishore Yadav as ministers with whom Nitish was satisfied.
BJP then played the ‘check-mate’ strategy by selecting Tarkishore Prasad and Renu Devi as Nitish’s deputies. They allegedly documented Shah directly and overlooked the CM.
The BJP’s decision to incline toward Vijay Kumar Sinha as the speaker did not settle satisfactorily with Nitish. The controversial film, The Kashmir Files was proclaimed tax-free by Tarkishore Prashad. No consultation with the Chief Minister was taken into account before making this announcement.
What would be the affect of the alliance drift on 2024 polls?
The conditions took an unrealistic diversion from BJP’s prospects. The alliance between JD(U) and RJD would terrorize BJP’s stance in the 2024 polls. 31% of votes, including Muslim communities and Yadav’s supporters, along with backward classes would be in Mahagathbandhan’s court, leaving the score as Nitish-1, BJP-0.
Former Deputy Chief Minister, Sushil Modi, alleged JD(U), for looking for vague excuses for breaking ties. However, he assures that BJP would come back stronger in the 2024 elections. He’s confident enough that BJP would bag a majority of votes and would establish its powerful reign.
Politicians like Chirag Paswan took this opportunity to point guns at Nitish Kumar, questioning his ideologies. “Today the credibility of Nitish Kumar is zero. We want President rule to be imposed in Bihar & the state should go for a fresh mandate.”, says Chirag, LJP leader (Ram Vilas faction).
The question which ruffles up the political stigma in the country is that a persistent stumble has been observed in several states. Time and again BJP has trajected a ploy towards encouraging defection to capsize the government or substantially weakening the same.