With a continuous increase of external, internal, internal-aided-external, external-aided-internal, 2.5 Generation and multi-domain threats, India is in a very vulnerable position in the middle of development and tackling its problem. These conventional and non-conventional threats hinder the economy, progress, prosperity and accomplishment of a society where things are shaping in the everyday world.
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What is Grey Zone?
The term “grey zone” refers to the space between peace and war, where hostile actors can engage in aggressive actions without crossing the threshold of a full-scale military conflict. This type of warfare is becoming increasingly prevalent in the South Asian region, especially in India and its neighbouring countries. Grey zone tactics are being used by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their strategic objectives and gain an advantage over their adversaries without resorting to conventional warfare.
Threats from Neighbours.
India, as the dominant power in South Asia, faces multiple grey zone threats from its neighbours. Pakistan, for instance, has been using proxy warfare to destabilize India by supporting terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. These groups carry out attacks on Indian security forces and civilians, causing widespread fear and panic. The use of non-state actors as proxies allows Pakistan to maintain plausible deniability and avoid confrontation with India such as sponsoring militancy in Kashmir and radicalising youth against the will and spirit of India.
China, on the other hand, has been using a combination of military, economic, and diplomatic measures to advance its strategic interests in the region. The Chinese use various doctrines such as salami slicing, wolf warrior diplomacy, the string of pearls, information warfare, unrestricted warfare, etc., which involves slowly and incrementally changing the status quo on the ground without triggering a military response.
China has been carrying out territorial encroachments in Ladakh and other parts of India’s northern borders, while also investing heavily in infrastructure projects in neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh. These investments are often accompanied by “debt-trap diplomacy,” where China extends large loans to these countries, which they are unable to repay, and in turn, China takes control of strategic assets such as ports and airports.
Grey zone tactics are not limited to state actors, as non-state actors also use them to further their agendas. For instance, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar has spilt over into neighbouring Bangladesh, where over a million Rohingya refugees have taken shelter. The Rohingya crisis has created a complex security situation for Bangladesh, as it has become a hub for various criminal and terrorist networks. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an insurgent group fighting for the rights of the Rohingya, has been accused of carrying out attacks on security forces in Myanmar and Bangladesh. The group’s attacks have triggered a heavy-handed response from the Myanmar military, leading to widespread human rights abuses and a refugee crisis.
Use of technology.
Image Source: Google Images
Grey zone tactics are not only limited to state and non-state actors in the region but also have a transnational dimension. The use of cyberspace and social media by hostile actors to spread fake news, propaganda, and misinformation has become a significant challenge for governments and security agencies. The spread of disinformation through social media platforms is a cheap and effective way to influence public opinion and create confusion and chaos.
The grey zone threats faced by India and its neighbours are multifaceted and require a comprehensive and integrated response. Traditional military solutions may not be effective in countering these threats, as they are designed to deal with conventional threats from state actors. India needs to adopt a whole-of-government approach, where all elements of national power, including diplomacy, information, military, and economic, are brought together to counter grey zone threats.
One of the primary ways to counter grey zone threats is to increase intelligence sharing and cooperation among the affected countries. Regional countries need to establish mechanisms for sharing intelligence on transnational threats such as terrorism, cyber-attacks, and money laundering. Information sharing can help countries detect and disrupt terrorist networks and other criminal activities before they can cause significant harm.
Another important strategy is to enhance border security and surveillance. Grey zone tactics often involve border violations, infiltration, and incursions by non-state actors. Countries need to develop advanced surveillance technologies, such as drones and satellites, to monitor their borders effectively. Strengthening border infrastructure and increasing the number of borders are also certain ways where India can be dominant in its position.
