India projected to overtake China as the world’s most populated country by 2024, according to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2022 report.
The World Population Prospects 2022 Report
The report is published by United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. It projected that the global population would reach 8 billion by November 2022. The report contains population estimates from 1950 to present for over 200 countries and areas. Analyses of historical demographic trends underlines the findings. The report was released on World Population Day 2022. It is celebrated annually on July 11.
Key Findings of the Report
India to overtake China as most populated country
Currently, the two most populous regions in the world were both in Asia. These are Eastern and South-Eastern Asia with 2.3 billion people (29 per cent), and Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion (26 per cent). China and India, with more than 2.8 billion people collectively, accounted for most of the population in these two regions.
Over half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 is concentrated in just eight countries. These include India, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Based on current population trends, India will become the most populated country in the world by 2024.
Population grows, but growth rate has slowed
While population continues to grow, the rate of growth has slowed down. In 2020, population growth fell to its lowest ever since 1950, at under one percent.
The report also predicts that global population could grow to 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. The population will peak at 10.4 billion in 2080 and stagnate at that level until 2100.
Fertility reduction policies will have little impact
Past growth momentum drives two-thirds of the predicted increase in global population in 2050. The youthful age structure of the current population aids the increase. Thus, further actions by governments aimed at reducing fertility would not have a major impact. The pace of growth between now and mid-century would remain the same.
Nonetheless, maintaining lower fertility rates over several decades is beneficial. They could lead to a more significant reduction of global population growth in the second half of the century.
Life expectancy continues to grow, but disparities remain
The declining levels of mortality are partly responsible for current population growth trends. These findings reflect increased levels of life expectancy at birth. Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990.
Further reductions in mortality will result in an average global life expectancy of around 77.2 years in 2050.
Despite the improvements, life expectancy for the least developed countries lagged 7 years behind the global average. A male disadvantage in life expectancy is also observed in all regions and countries. It ranges from 7 years in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.9 years in Australia and New Zealand.
The COVID-19 pandemic affected all components of population change
Global life expectancy at birth fell to 71.0 years in 2021, down from 72.8 in 2019. It was mostly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In low- and middle-income countries numbers of unintended pregnancies and births have remained relatively stable. The situation is different in high-income countries. It appears that successive waves of the pandemic may have generated short-term fluctuations in numbers of pregnancies and births.
Since the pandemic restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration, demographic migration trends appear to have fallen.
Why is the population report data important?
Data on population trends are vital for development planning. The pandemic disturbed many data collection operations worldwide. This results in skewed development planning. The current data trends and analyses allow for better policy formulation. They also allow better assessment of countries’ progress towards the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals.
