From the time when pandemic struck the world, everything except the essential services came to a standstill. Tourism too came to a standstill as people had nowhere to go and were locked inside the four walls of their houses. NCAER said that up to 2026, it is difficult for Indian tourism to be similar to what it was before 2020. For good six to seven months, all tourism activities were on halt. The tourism industry has been the worst hit by the pandemic.   Â
International TourismÂ
By the end of 2021, tourism started to revive as people were jabbed with COVID vaccines, but in 2022, the third wave induced by the Omicron variant started spreading and again tourism industry is at a halt.  Â
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has developed a shocking report stating that Indian tourism will not revive until 2026. On the other hand, United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) said that international tourism will not restore fully any time before 2024.
This news comes as a shocker to both governments and members of the tourism sector. The economy of a nation depends mainly on the tourism industry. In 2019, the tourism industry contributed 6.8% to the GDP of India.  Â
By the end of 2021, foreign arrivals went down by 63% compared to before the pandemic happened. As per the reports, South Asia was the worst hit because it could only recover 10% of its tourism industry by September 2021. Whereas, compared to 2019, India was 96% behind in increasing its numbers till June 2021. Â
Hotels, which are a massive part of the tourism sector, were also battered during the pandemic. Though there came a ray of hope in South Asia in October 2020; however, with the second wave of COVID-19, it started to suffer again.
Although the numbers started going up in mid of 2021 and crossed the numbers reached in 2019, Omicron led the third wave started spreading worldwide, and tourism started to show a decrease in the numbers again. Â
Travel and tourism in IndiaÂ
In India, the number of people employed in the tourism and travel sector, either directly or indirectly, showed a drastic rise. As per NCAER’s study, approximately 3.5 crore people were hired in 2019 and early 2020. However, by the end of 2020, the number fell to 18 lakhs owing to people being laid off, people leaving jobs at their own will, suffering from the virus etc. Â
National Council of Applied Economic Research’s report suggests that the maximum that could happen is that tourism will revive only half of what it was in 2019 by 2025. It also indicated that the recovery of the tourism and travel sector would be a slow process, and by 2026 to 2027, the numbers would hardly match the numbers recorded in 2019. Â
Other findings of NCAERÂ
Other than the tourism sector, NCAER suggested that most sectors are soon going to reach the numbers recorded in 2019 and might even surpass them. Owing to the rapid vaccinations and decline in COVID cases, economic activities have started to normalise, which were hit by the COVID pandemic in late 2020 and early 2021.
The NCAER report said, “With the economy expected to grow at 9.5 per cent (RBI) this year, most sectors seem to be on their way to reach the pre-pandemic level and then grow beyond those.” Â
Published By- Bharat Anand
