The forecast is welcome news for the agricultural industry, which depends on monsoon rains to grow the majority of the net cultivated area’s crops.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported on Tuesday that rainfall during the southwest monsoon in June through September is likely to be in the “normal” range at 96% of the standard long-period average (LPA). 96 to 104% of the LPA is regarded as “normal” rainfall.
Monsoon favours the farming industry
The farm industry, which depends on monsoon rains for crops grown in more than half of the net cultivated area, is relieved by the forecast from the official weather agency. Even though irrigation has greatly improved over the past 20 years, important kharif crops like paddy, tur, and soy beans still receive a large portion of their moisture from the rain. For crop cultivation, the country’s central and eastern regions are more dependent on monsoon rains.
The IMD’s prediction comes shortly after Skymet, a private weather forecasting company, warned on Monday that this year’s monsoon precipitation could be “below normal” at 94% of the LPA.
The country would experience “normal” or “above normal” rainfall for five straight years if the IMD’s prediction comes true. In addition to ensuring sufficient soil moisture for rabi crops like wheat, mustard, and chana, this is anticipated to boost the sowing of kharif crops like paddy, tur, soybean, and cotton.
Another encouraging development is that water levels in the nation’s 146 reservoirs are currently at a relaxing 21% above the ten year average.
According to M.Ravichandran, secretary of the ministry of earth sciences, the met department anticipates an average rainfall of 83.5 cm during monsoon months, down from the LPA of 87 cm recorded between 1971 and 2020.
The impact of El Nino conditions relative to monsoon in India
West Bengal, the nation’s top producer of rice, has a 51% irrigation coverage rate, which could be impacted by insufficient monsoon rains. The monsoon has a significant impact on areas that grow pulses and oilseeds in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka.
The forecast from the met department is subject to a +/-5% model error. The likelihood of the nation receiving average or above-average rainfall is estimated to be between 49% and 66%. This is true even though El Nino conditions probably started to develop in July and affected the rains in August and September.
El Nino and summer rainfall in India hardly have a one-to-one correlation, according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of IMD. Six of the 15 El Nino years between 1951 and 2022 saw normal to above-average rainfall. He claimed that the Indian Ocean Dipole, another factor that affects the southwest monsoon, is predicted to be favourable.
El Nino’s negative effects will be mitigated by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which will lead to a normal monsoon, and low snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia.
An analysis of the data and given conditions
In terms of regional rainfall distribution, the met department has predicted normal rainfall over peninsular India, adjacent east central India, east India, northeast India, and northwest India, while portions of west central India and north eastern India are expected to receive precipitation below normal during the period of June to September.
IMD categorises rainfall as “normal” when it is between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall of 90% to 95% is referred to as “below normal,” and precipitation of less than 90% of LPA is referred to as “deficient.” Rainfall amounts between 104% and 110% of the benchmark are considered “above normal,” while amounts over 110% of the LPA are considered “excess.”
According to Bank of Baroda Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis, “a monsoon forecast has to be viewed with some degree of caution as its effects on both growth (demand) and inflation will become clear only post-October.”
However, despite the monsoon’s patchy and inconsistent performance over the years, India’s foodgrain production has only been slightly impacted, according to data on the monsoon and foodgrains for the past ten years.
For example, food grain production in the 2014–15 crop year (July–June) decreased 5% to 252 million tonne (MT) compared to the 2013–14 crop year, and monsoon rains were 12% below the benchmark in 2014. The production of rice, wheat, and pulses did not decrease in the 2018–19 crop year compared to the previous year, even though monsoon rains were 9% below the average benchmark.
