AQI is predicted to worsen after Diwali, even if the firecracker load is 50% of 2019 – SAFAR.
AQI Chart:
0 to 50 – good
51 to 100 – satisfactory
101 to 200 – moderate
201 to 300 – poor
301 to 400 – extremely poor
401 to 500 – severe
The SAFAR (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research) forecasting algorithm predicts that as the city’s temperatures drop and stubble burning’s effects become more apparent over the next two days, the air quality index (AQI) will continue to escalate, and may reach “severe” by Tuesday.
On Sunday, 26 out of 31 Air Quality Index (AQI) stations were at the “bad” level, indicating that the air quality in Delhi was still poor. Anand Vihar station, which comes within the “extremely poor” category, recorded an AQI of 372, while Aya Nagar station registered “moderate” air quality.
Stubble Fires and Firecrackers
According to government-run monitoring body SAFAR, the amount of stubble burning in neighboring states that contributes to PM2.5 in Delhi is anticipated to increase from 8% on Wednesday to 20% on Diwali and 35%–40% on Friday and Saturday (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research).
However, if the firecracker ban is not adhered to strictly by the residents in the region, the AQI is destined to shoot up to ‘severe’ by Monday evening. In the best-case scenario, even if we avoid the firecrackers, the AQI will still plunge to a “very poor’ range.
From November 4 to 6, even a slight increase in local fireworks emissions is expected to have a major degrading effect and may push the AQI into the “severe” category. The peak PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations are anticipated to occur between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m. on November 4 and 5, according to SAFAR.
‘Very Poor’ state of affairs
According to a WHO analysis of 1,650 global cities, the air quality in the Delhi-NCR region is among the worst in the world. According to estimates, air pollution kills around 2 million people annually in India, making it the fifth most lethal cause of death. In Delhi, 2.2 million people, or 50% of all children, have irreparable lung damage.
The Great Smog of Delhi, which occurred in November 2016, was a period of extreme air pollution that exceeded legal limits. The permissible limits for PM2.5 and PM10 pollutants are 60 and 100 micrograms per cubic meter, respectively. However, levels of these pollutants reached 999 micrograms per cubic meter.
The Commission for Air Quality Management directed the authorities in the Delhi-NCR region to enact Stage 2 of GARP. Burning coal or firewood, including in tandoors in hotels, restaurants, or open eateries, is strictly prohibited. Except for projects of national importance, telecommunication, data, medical, railway, and metro rail services, airports, interstate bus terminals, sewage treatment facilities, and water pumping stations, the use of diesel generators is prohibited. Daily vacuum-based road sweeping, water spraying to reduce dust pollution, and rigorous adherence to dust control regulations at building and demolition sites are advised under Stage 2 of GARP (Graded Response Action Plan).
If the residents stayed adamant about burning stubble and bursting firecrackers, be it the ‘green’ ones’, the situation is bound to get worse, making the air toxic. As per the records of 24’ October, Monday morning, the AQI had already dipped to ‘Hazardous’, keeping that in mind, there is not much room left to falter now.
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