The world’s population is expected to hit eight billion people by mid-November and will continue to rise in the decades to come, albeit more slowly.
World Population Prospects 2022, published by the United Nations, predicts that the world’s population will hit 8 billion on November 15, 2022, and that India would overtake China as the world’s most populous nation in 2024.
Demographic Trends
The current U.N. estimates indicate that by 2030, there may be 8.5 billion people on Earth. By 2050, it will increase to 9.7 billion, and by the 2080s, it will peak at about 10.4 billion. However, it is anticipated that some will stay there until 2100.
According to the analysis, just eight nations—Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania—will account for more than half of the population growth expected up to 2050.
In 2019, the average life expectancy at birth was 72.8 years, an increase of about 9 years since 1990. It is expected that further mortality declines will lead to an average worldwide lifetime of roughly 77.2 years in 2050. But in 2021, the least developed nations’ life expectancy dropped 7 years behind the average worldwide.
According to the UN, the average fertility rate was 2.3 children per woman over the course of her lifetime in 2021, down from over five in 1950. The UN predicts that the figure will drop to 2.1 by 2050.
Data Interpretation
According to Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, “the relationship between rising population and sustainable development is sophisticated and multifaceted.” Rapid population expansion makes it more challenging to eradicate poverty, fight hunger and malnutrition, and expand access to health and education systems.
He also added that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals will help to slow down population growth globally and reduce fertility rates, particularly those relating to health, education, and gender equality.
The percentage of people in the world over the age of 65 is anticipated to increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. At that time, it is presumed that there will be roughly as many people in the world over 65 as there are under 12 and more than twice as many over 65 as under 5.
Developing universal health care and long-term care systems, as well as strengthening the sustainability of social security and pension systems, are all actions that countries with aging populations should take to accommodate welfare programs to the rising number of older people.
Surpassing China
According to the UN, the two most populous nations, China and India, will switch places atop the podium as early as 2024, serving as another example of shifting trends. The UN predicts that China’s current population of 1.4 billion people will gradually start to shrink and reach 1.3 billion by 2050.
Also, there’s a possibility that China’s population may only be 800 million by the end of the century. Although its fertility rate has already dropped below the replacement level, India’s population, which is currently marginally behind that of China, is projected to surpass its northern neighbor in 2024 and increase to 1.7 billion by 2050.
