The sudden disappearance of Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu has thrown a spotlight on the opaque and intricate structure of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), leaving diplomats and analysts puzzled and concerned.
Li Shangfu is reportedly under investigation for corrupt procurement practices during his previous role, a revelation reported by Reuters on Friday. This investigation also extends to eight other senior officials. However, Chinese authorities have not officially disclosed Li’s current status or whereabouts, leading to a wave of speculation and intrigue.
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Understanding Li Shangfu’s Role in the PLA
In the Chinese military system, the Minister of National Defence holds a less influential position compared to counterparts like the U.S. Secretary of Defense and their international equivalents. Li Shangfu’s role was primarily diplomatic and ceremonial, lacking direct command authority. Nevertheless, he occupied a significant position as one of the six military officials under Commander-in-Chief and President Xi Jinping on the core Central Military Commission (CMC). Furthermore, he held the rank of one of the five State Councillors, a status outranking that of a regular cabinet minister.
Li, an aerospace engineer who previously worked on China’s satellite program, was considered a technocrat instrumental in implementing President Xi’s modernization vision for the PLA, according to military attaches and analysts.
The Chinese Military System: A Complex Framework
The PLA, serving as the armed wing of the ruling Communist Party, operates directly under the party’s control rather than the state. Throughout Li’s career ascent, he would have undergone thorough vetting to ensure absolute loyalty to the party and President Xi.
One unique aspect of the PLA’s structure is the presence of political commissars who work alongside the command chain, responsible for preserving loyalty, unity, and morale. This commissar system has no direct parallel outside traditional Communist military systems.
The Central Military Commission (CMC) serves as the party’s highest-level decision-making body on military matters. Over the years, President Xi has introduced reforms aimed at reducing the PLA’s autonomy and enhancing the party’s control over the military, adding another layer of opacity beyond routine military secrecy.
The Significance of Systemic Differences
The PLA stands as the world’s largest fighting force, continually growing in capability and modernization. As it integrates new weaponry, its organizational structure undergoes changes, including the establishment of unified regional commands and the creation of a Strategic Support Force responsible for space and cyber warfare capabilities—a force in which Li served as deputy commander in 2016.
Given the PLA’s expanding power and influence, foreign militaries are keen to comprehend its inner workings and strategic intentions, fostering military-to-military diplomacy. However, Li’s sudden disappearance raises concerns among diplomats and analysts that China’s military outreach is being overshadowed by internal security measures.
International Implications and Future Outlook
The United States, amidst regional tensions, seeks to reestablish regular communications with Chinese defense officials. Despite Li’s uncertain status, some analysts suggest that a more senior figure, such as CMC vice-chairman and close Xi ally Zhang Youxia, could facilitate a more equal dialogue.
With Li’s disappearance, international attention is now focused on an upcoming international security conference scheduled for October, which he was set to host. If Li fails to appear at the Xiangshan Forum, a significant defense diplomacy event, it could indicate that he is still under investigation.
China, traditionally punctual in sending invitations for such events, has not yet dispatched invitations for the forum. The Xiangshan Forum, often referred to as Beijing’s version of the Shangri La Dialogue, holds considerable importance in shaping global discussions on defense and security matters.
As the world watches and speculates, the unexplained absence of key Chinese military figures like Li Shangfu raises questions about the inner workings of the PLA and China’s broader strategic intentions on the international stage.
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