Russia-Ukraine war: Putin eyes for victory as war marches eastward

After more than 30 days into the Russia-Ukraine war, the Russian forces still struggle to seize Kharkiv, a city 30 miles from the Russian border with only 1.4 million inhabitants.

Several US officials with the help of the latest US intelligence assessments convey that Moscow has revised its locus and shifted its focus on taking control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern with a target date of early May. 

The destruction of Kharkiv caused Russia to evolve its war tactics and redirect its focus on Ukraine’s Donbas area, a swath of terrain about the size of New Hampshire in the east.  

Donbas region holds grounds for Moscow’s interest as this region has had served secessionist activities in the southeast of Kharkiv, where Russian-backed rebels have been fighting Ukrainian government forces for the past eight years. However, there are still a substantial number of Ukrainian military forces stationed. 

While Russian rebel forces in 2014 had seized land in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas area. Also, Putin before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine had announced that he would recognise two self-proclaimed independent republics in the Donbas region. 

Russia re-strategises

Russian forces resorted to shelling large population centres like Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south to ensure a cut off of Ukrainian resources aid-line. Russian forces are finding take alternate territory as they failed to score a quick victory or capture Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. 

Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia explains that Russian forces are attempting to keep Ukrainian forces engaged so that they may concentrate on the country’s eastern regions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sees it as a crucial objective, as taking control of the Donbas would effectively carve off a chunk of Eastern Ukraine. This will validate the Russian leader his victory. Moscow now aims to mark reaching a goal post on May 9 which is Russia’s Victory Day that commemorates the country’s WWII victory over Germany. 

It’s to be noted that even the Ukrainian officials have publicly pinpointed the same date with Ukrainian Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov conveying the same message that Putin’s goal is to lead a victory parade for this war most probably by the 9th of May’22. 

While Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that the Ukrainians have a very complex and difficult situation as Putin nears his deadline. He acknowledged that, 

“His (Putin’s) ultimate goal is, was and will be to take over Ukraine, but he failed. He failed due to a very strong resolve of the Ukrainian military and very strong unity between Ukraine and the Western world, and the sanctions that have been imposed by the United States and G7 and the European Union. So now, as far as I see, Putin switched to Plan B. My take is that this Plan B has a kind of, deadline. The deadline is the ninth of May.” 

The future seems uncertain even with the certain claims of the US and the Ukrainian officials. The Bucha Civilian Killings have again put Russia at suspicion with world leaders casting their disapproval and public condemnations against Moscow.

As Ukraine forwards for more destruction, the Putin administration is shuffling alternates to keep its economy alive and its military engaged. 

 Published By: Manan Khurana

Edited By: Subbuthai Padma