The present global population of 7.8 billion is constantly increasing and is estimated to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 11.2 billion by 2100 as per the World Bank data on population, this certainly presents a universe of parameters to analyze to harness the best outcome.
Every age group of the population has specific requirements and contributions to the growth prospects, while the pediatric and geriatric age groups contribute less to the economic growth, it is the working age that predominantly drives the economy.
As per the present demographic distribution other than a few nations in North America and Western Europe, almost 70% of the world nations contain a working-age population.
But this demographic sweet spot shall decline over some time and by 2060 most of the nations will be filled by the geriatric population.
Demographic dividend declining globally
There is a decline in the annual growth rate of the global population, (from 0.95% per annum in 2021 to 0.5% by 2050).
This must be dealt like a rope walk because the decline in the growth rate in one case indicates that the birth rate and death rate are eventually getting balanced, and in other case, it could be due to a low birth rate compared to an increase in the aged population.
Both the situations depict a balance, but the second case which is seen at present is very concerning.
At present there is decline in the average fertility rate globally (fertility rate refers to the number of children that a woman can bare in her lifespan).
This is due to various reasons like:-
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- Increase in average life expectancy, due to development in medical science.
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- Drop in the number of childbirths, due to parental awareness, education, access to contraceptives, restrictive government policies like in China, etc.
Demographic decline: challenges to the world
- Decrease in forest cover due to increased urbanization.
- There is a net decline in agricultural land,
Due to the rise in urbanization.
- Prevalence of HIV in 15 – 49 age group (no significant cure to date).
- There is an increase in student turn-up rate.
but decline in the employment rate.
- The rise in the number of refugees.
- Drop in labor force participation rate.
- Very low employment to population ratio.
Opportunities to India
At present India is one among the nations having a high working age group, which shall persist till 2050, provided further India is going to be the most populous nation crossing China by 2025 with a 1.4 billion population.
Added to this, India is the largest source of student feed to foreign universities, (next to China), this can help foreign universities generate revenue.
Further, the graduated students who work abroad can also feed the labor force abroad and send the remittance back to India, which feeds our National revenue.
However, to mitigate the ageing population nations have to ensure to achieve Replacement Level Fertility before the opportunity slips.
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