Future heavy rains linked to climate change will make the danger of volcanoes worse

According to research, as the planet continues to heat up, it is going to cause more and more volcanoes to erupt. 

Most of the planet’s active land volcanoes could experience heavier rains as a result of climate change. Rainfall has been suggested in the past as a possible cause of volcanic eruptions and mudslides.  

Due to the rapid climatic change over the Holocene, the prevalence of numerous such dangers has increased.   

One such example is Mount Pinatubo‘s eruption in 1991, which produced a significant drop in Earth’s climate in the following year or two. It is an example of a large eruption that is able to shoot sun-blocking particles to the stratosphere.  

The cooling impact is clearly reflected in the presence of big eruptions that are capable of this. 

The Study

The researchers who conducted this study were curious as to how many of the approximately 1200 active volcanoes on land would see an uptick in the number of precipitations they get due to climate change.  

 In order to simulate warming of 2 to 3o c and 5o c by 2100, the researchers ran nine different climate models under moderate and extreme greenhouse gas emissions situations. 

The Result 

The majority of Holocene-active subaerial volcanic systems are reliably anticipated to experience more intense rains as global temperatures continue to rise, according to scientists.  

For every degree of warming over the next 80 years, heavy precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 46% in some volcanic regions, according to a high-emissions climate future.  

Another 33% of the world’s volcanoes lack adequate inter-model agreement to make predictions about whether future rains will be more or less intense.  

These findings are consistent with many emission scenarios and suggest important concomitant consequences for hazards associated with rainfall at the majority of Earth’s subaerial volcanic systems.  

The authors may look at how the Earth’s system reacted to long-term and short-term changes in climate in the past to learn more about the upcoming years, where global warming of 1.5–2o C by 2100 seems to be a done deal. 

The Perspective 

According to Bill McGuire at University College London, heavy rains can trigger eruptions when cold water rushes into lava domes and evaporates or by gradually “decaying” a volcano’s interior structure.   

Lahars, the most dangerous volcanic hazard, are caused by heavy rains and are mudslides of volcanic ash.

Dr. Farquharson, the author of the study says that

“Volcanoes tend to be pretty fragile environments” 

Thomas Aubry at the University of Cambridge says that the circumstances that may lead to an eruption or a lahar due to increasing rainfall are complicated and can alter a lot from one volcano to another.   

However, the study shows that rainfall should be taken into account while evaluating volcanic threats, he argues. Monitors at many volcanoes typically do not consider meteorological data.