In a report recently released by the KIDA(Korea Institute For Defense Analysis),Seoul researchers provided a compendious account of North Korea’s weapon arsenal,reserving about 80-90 nuclear weapons at hand.
Park Yong-han, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Defense Studies, and Lee Sang-kyu, an active research fellow, revealed in the report “Estimates and Prospects of North Korea’s Nuclear Warhead Quantity” released on 12 January that they have obtained up to 2,044 kilograms of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium at its Yongbyon nuclear facility. The report also predicted that North Korea will increase its nuclear warhead arsenal to about 300 in the future.
Preparing for a deadly retaliation
North Korea lambast US prowess
The report further prognosticates that, assuming the pattern of North’s nuclear attack; such as attacking only the Korean peninsula to avoid US retaliation, avoiding attacks on urban centres such as Seoul, conducting only tactical nuclear attacks on military targets such as air bases and key command facilities, mixing attacks with conventional warheads, and increasing the success rate of multiple nuclear attacks, the number of nuclear warheads required for them to achieve its military objectives is derived this way.
“North Korea could have only 166 nuclear warheads by 2030,” the report estimated, adding, “As Kim Jong-un demanded mass production of nuclear warheads,the country may pursue the construction of new uranium enrichment facilities or the expansion of existing ones.”
While the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea State Commission Chairman, Kim Jong Un, has exhorted an “exponential increase” in its nuclear warhead stockpile, catching momentum in defying the US forces and their allies, this new report implies an expansion of his missile programme to unite their fissile material for the same goal.
In Kim’s perspective,all this mass production of weaponry is to combat US’ “Hostile Military Moves”and to defend against the japan-South Korea strategic planners,but to South Korea’s dismay ,this might pose a bigger threat for its national security and integrity of the state.
In retaliation to the policy speech performed by Kim Jong Un,South Korean president Yoon Suk-Yeol has even considered the possibility of trying out nuclear weapons or,perhaps asking reinforcements from US allies to be supplied on the Korean peninsula.
“North Korea’s development of solid-fuel engines for long-range missiles, its testing of submarine-launched and road-mobile missiles, and its plans to expand its tactical nuclear arsenal are worrisome,” said Evans Revere, a former senior U.S. State Department official.
Speculations suggested by several Seoul researchers point out that the North has completed preparations for their next nuclear weapon test, which would be its seventh overall and first since 2017.“A test of a tactical nuclear weapon design is a very real possibility in 2024 given North Korea’s stated goal of expanding the arsenal and activity at the test site,” Eric Gomez, a senior fellow focused on nuclear stability issues in East Asia at the Cato Institute, said.
Given North’s nuclear arsenal, various launch platforms, and “mix-and-shoot” tactics of mass attacks, it may be difficult to guarantee a perfect interception their nuclear attack, the report noted.
In addition, the report suggested that in order to deter Kim Jong Un’s use of nuclear weapons, it is necessary to complement the capabilities of the South Korean three-axis system and the credibility of alliances to the maximum.
