Its been seven months since Russia invaded Ukraine in the guise of a special military operation, which turn out to be a full-fledged invasion with one mission “denazification of Ukraine”. Ukraine retaliated backed by western equipment and weapons and foreign fighters who are helping in the war efforts as well as training Ukrainian civilians to fight the war.
While the Russians expected a speedy victory in Ukraine, their expectation has been too far-fledged since the war has slowed down to a crawl and taken heavy military losses on both sides while Ukraine also had heavy civilian losses as they adopts their tried and tested – scorched earth policy for warfare, although Russia denies such claims.
Russians in the early days of the attack expected a speedy victory with their air superiority and mechanized expertise, but soon they realized that they might have bitten more than they can chew.
A war that was expected to finish within 2 months of the military expedition is now continuing for 7 months. Both sides have taken heavy losses but more interestingly, Russia has exposed its weakness on the world stage.
The Russian military is ill-equipped with outdated mechanized infantry, low-quality armor and limited 5th generation fighters making them an easy target for Western-made weapons that are designed to destroy such targets. Even though Russia has been downplaying the real damages and losses – western analysts have estimated that Russia has lost one-third of its armed forces.
Russia has also been cut off from the SWIFT banking system and has been effectively alienated from the world, making them strengthen their connection with China and India, the two markets they can count on. But in the midst of a diplomatic war between China and India, and India diversifying its exports, it’s becoming difficult for Russia to win the support of both countries.
Recent Development in the War
Russian FSB has accused Ukrainian Intelligence Service of carrying out the assassination of Darya Dugina, the daughter of an ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue. FSB has done a speedy investigation, identified the suspect and even caught video evidence of the act.
While FSB is using this assassination as a motivation behind the Ukraine war, western analysts are skeptical since FSB does not have a good enough track record to suggest that they can do such an investigation in a matter of weeks.
Many analysts claim that this murder may have been staged entirely. Something that is quite not irrelevant, since the Russian propaganda machine always stages events to either show solidarity or enmity.
Russian artillery has again shelled Zaporhizia nuclear power plant again even after repeated warnings from Ukrainian officials as well as The United Nations. The capture of a nuclear power plant is a dangerous card in Putin’s hand, given there is no guarantee that it won’t be used in warfare against Ukrainians.
Russia has been also accused of violating the Geneva convention. Ukrainian POWs have reportedly been tortured and repeatedly harassed.
The Geneva convention strictly bans any such steps to be taken against the POWs. But even though Russia has denied the claim and counter-accused Ukraine for spreading misinformation and defamation of the Russian military.
Also since the Ukrainian ports have been unblocked due to the export of agricultural products, the exports are likely to be increased from 3m tonnes to 4m tonnes of wheat to Europe.
