China is gaining ground while the West is preoccupied with Russian aggression in Ukraine. “The only country that gains presently from this military conflict, the war,” stated Oleg Ustenko, Ukraine’s Presidential Economic Adviser. China is able to do so for a variety of reasons and due to the viability of its infrastructure.
While the EU and the United States are preoccupied with imposing sanctions. China is walking a tightrope with the EU while also taking a calculated risk in attacking the US, thanks to its strategic quiet. It isn’t openly defending or opposing invasion.
Economic Benefits
China has stated that it will not vote against Russia in the UN Security Council. However, it is recently turned down request to outsource portions of passenger planes to them, while continuing to disobey the US policy on chip manufacturing. With only 16 days left in the conflict, They have made significant advances in terms of economic and food security.
In addition, the outcome of the battle has implications for own operations in Taiwan.
Half of South Asian countries have either remained neutral or have gone entirely with the West when it comes to Russia. China, India, and others are bearing the brunt of the cost.
They taking advantage of the current emptiness in Eurasia, with the West insistent about not joining in the war while maintaining isolation from the world system in terms of trade and economy of the scale.
The healthy packages that ensure suffocation accidentally provide Beijing an advantage. As a result, This is becoming more reliant on China for products and equipment imports. They accounted for 22% of their imports in 2019. With Moscow’s increasing complications, this percentage is only expected to rise.
When the west cut off from the SWIFT financial system, They used the opportunity to establish its own parallel financial system, the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System). The west is oblivious to the fact that each depreciation of the Ruble increases Moscow’s reliance. This only strengthens the Yuan.
Brahma Chellaney, a political scholar and strategist, has said that this battle has accelerated China’s rise. He wrote on Twitter:
Food Supply
Russia is known as the world’s breadbasket (while Ukraine is the 5th largest wheat exporter). Moscow will be obliged to exchange its surplus wheat as its trade and commerce are cut off from the global order and they mainly supplied Beijing with much-needed assurances on food security.
Furthermore, with Russia’s oil embargo, Beijing is likely to benefit from the discount on oil imports. The Xi Administration has taken advantage of this rapid shift in the global attention to extend its control in the region by filling the voids left by the declining presence.
This is also a wake-up call for China and the rest of South Asia, demonstrating by how much power the West and the EU possess over the world’s 11th largest economy. It’s a test case for China and with the worst-case possibilities but lessons on how to build the best parallel institutions and technical infrastructures to ensure its survival. In recent years, European countries had indicated an interest in developing their Indo-Pacific policy. Now, enhanced EU military spending and closer to the coordination with the US could manifest itself in a changed EU geopolitical posture around the world, not just in Europe.
“If food prices rise as a result of Ukraine no longer being able to produce the amount of grain it has, that’s a problem for China. It will raise prices for everyone,” says Pantucci.
Published By : Revathy G Sanal
Edited By : Subbuthai Padma
