Is another COVID wave on cards for India

A massive spike in cases 

According to the reports of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India has witnessed a total of 2138 new Covid-19 cases and 214 deaths in the last 24-hours.

The past week has witnessed a sudden but massive surge in the COVID cases in the country with Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh heading the active caseload. A massive jump in cases on Monday almost doubled the cases with a spike of over 90 percent.   

After about 11 weeks of declining COVID-19 infections, the cases surged by 35% this week against the previous seven-day count. The capital city which was reporting less than 200 active cases last week has witnessed a sudden spike and has been reporting more than 500 daily infections this week.

Around 202 cases were reported last Tuesday, the number rose to more than 517 cases on Sunday. As per the latest reports of the Health Ministry, the total death toll in the country has climbed to around 5,21,965 cases.

At present, the positivity rate stands at around 5.33% while the fatality rate was recorded at 1.21 percent.  

Several North Indian states are on alert 

According to the official data of the Government of India, Sunday witnessed 135 people testing positive for the virus in Uttar Pradesh.

The active caseload has crossed 600-mark, putting the districts of Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddha Nagar on high alert.  Kerala reported 213 deaths while Uttar Pradesh reported 1 death, in the past week.  

According to a survey conducted in Delhi-NCR, the number of people reporting about someone in their close social network getting affected by C has risen to around 500 percent in the last 15 days.

Local Circles, the firm that conducted the survey stated that COVID network prevalence marks an increase of over 500% in the last 15 days.  

The reason for the rising cases 

• Many doctors have attributed the rise in the number of COVID cases to the relaxation of mask mandates and social pandemic reforms.
• Unrestricted social gatherings, poor personal hygiene, refusal to wear masks, and reluctance to vaccinate are some of the major contributors to the increasing numbers.
• Official databases state that the mild surge is primarily due to the emergence of highly transmissible mutant variants like Omicron XE and BA.2.   

According to Dr. Sachin Kandhari, a senior neurosurgeon at IBS Hospital in Delhi, the rise of the new variants can be attributed to unequal vaccination. While more than a third of the world’s population still kicking heels for their first dose, the US is preparing for booster doses.  

He also added that most of the new cases are mild requiring only symptomatic treatment and home care, however diabetic patients or those with heart ailments, continue to remain vulnerable.  He also advised people to continue wearing masks, follow social distancing as well regular hand hygiene.   

Is there a possibility of a fourth wave? 

Maninda Agarwal, a professor from IIT Kanpur, whose mathematical model has been a reference for understanding the pandemic over the last few years has stated that the possibility of a fourth wave in the country remains low.

Adding to his statement, he made it clear that the present rise in cases is mainly due to the lift in COVID curbs in many parts of the country. He supported his claims by stating that people’s natural immunity against Covid-19 is above 90 percent, which might not allow the new variants to thrive and spread.  

Confirming that hospital admissions aren’t spiking, a senior doctor at IBS Hospital said that although the new variant has gained prominence in the past week, they are unaware of the complete details of the variant.  

Dr. Balasubramanian, a consultant at Yashoda Hospital, Hyderabad ensured that adherence to Covid-19 vaccinations, recognition of early symptoms, and quarantine can help mitigate the spread. Authorities are now stepping up and intensifying surveillance, to contain the virus.