Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nine-year tenure has witnessed a remarkable period of strong growth in the Indian stock market, defying the challenging years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Over this period, key equity benchmarks such as the Sensex and the Nifty have surged by an impressive 150 percent, while the overall market capitalization of BSE-listed firms has more than tripled, jumping by ₹195 lakh crore. This article delves into the significant milestones achieved during Modi’s regime, highlighting the government’s policies, economic growth, and prospects.
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Stock Market Performance:
When Modi assumed office as Prime Minister on May 26, 2014, the Sensex stood at 24,716.88, and the Nifty50 was at 7,359.05. Presently, the Sensex is nearing the 62,000 mark, with the Nifty eyeing the 19,000 level. The cumulative market capitalization of BSE-listed firms has also witnessed a substantial increase, rising from ₹85,20,816.63 crore in May 2014 to ₹2,80,33,373.63 crore on May 25, 2023.
Under Modi’s government, various sectors have experienced impressive growth. The Nifty Private Bank index has soared by 196 percent, the Nifty Bank index by 188 percent, and the Nifty FMCG index by 180 percent. Other sectors, such as Nifty Energy, Nifty Auto, Nifty Realty, Nifty Metal, and Nifty Pharma, have also witnessed significant gains, rising by 140 percent, 116 percent, 94 percent, 86 percent, and 67 percent, respectively.
Economic Growth and Projections:
The period of the Modi government has seen India’s economy consistently growing at an average pace of 6-7 percent each year. Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, surpassing Japan and Germany. They also anticipate that India will have the third-largest stock market by 2030, thanks to global trends and the country’s strategic investments in technology and energy. Morgan Stanley further suggests that India’s GDP could more than double from $3.5 trillion today to surpass $7.5 trillion by 2031.
Government Policies and Reforms:
The Modi government’s policies, including initiatives like Make In India, performance-linked incentives (PLI), and a focus on foreign direct investment, have played a significant role in boosting the Indian market and economy. The emphasis on infrastructure projects, pro-business reforms, financial inclusion, and financial reforms has generated positive outcomes and instilled market confidence. Modi’s reputation as pro-business and the brand he represents has had a strong influence on the stock market.
Potential Challenges and Outlook:
Despite the overall positive sentiment, some potential risks lie ahead. Analysts, like Jefferies’ Christopher Wood, highlight concerns over the questioning of the consensus belief that Modi will be re-elected, which could impact the market over the next 12 months. Additionally, a reduction in retail investor activity following a period of limited stock market movement is another factor to consider. Nonetheless, Wood remains optimistic, projecting that the Sensex will eventually reach the 100,000 mark and asserting that the Indian stock market will continue its upward trajectory.
In summation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nine-year incumbency has indubitably engendered a transformative and paradigm-shifting epoch for the Indian stock market. The confluence of sagacious pro-business policies, sectoral focus, and infrastructural metamorphosis has propelled the market to resplendent heights.
As India hurtles towards becoming a global economic colossus, steadfast commitment to engendering investor confidence and navigating the capricious currents of an ever-evolving market landscape shall be indispensable in sustaining the upward trajectory of the stock market under Modi’s sagacious leadership.