As Russia “liberates” the Luhansk region, it can take its offensive further into Southern Ukraine provided its manpower permits.
As Russian troops take Lysychanks, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Defence Minister Sergei Shogu claimed Luhansk’s liberation on Sunday.
Ukrainian forces have pulled back from yet another city after Severodonetsk on Saturday. There is simply no point in defending a city that would have fallen with continuous incessant shelling.
“ Russia currently has a huge advantage in artillery and ammunition. They would have simply destroyed it from a distance. There is no point in staying,” says Serhiy Haidai.
This statement matches Russian accounts of entering virtually unopposed in Lysychanks, but what now?
Russian Bombardment of Sloviansk and a Further Push Forward
After the fall of Luhansk, Russians started bombarding Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Bombing cities and then moving in it is a standard Russian military tactic.
In 1999, during the Second Chechen War, the Russians pretty much shelled the Chechen capital Grozny and razed much of the city. Russia bombed Aleppo the same way in April-July 2016.
It is no surprise that they followed the same in cities like Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Lysychanks. And Ukrainian forces had to withdraw to prevent the loss of soldiers and civilians alike. “ We will rebuild the walls, we will regain the land, but the people must be saved above all else,” said President Zelensky.
The city of Sloviansk is strategic to Russian interests. Located on the strategic M03 motorway, it is also significant for Russia-backed separatists as the site of the first uprising in 2014. It is also unclear what will be Russia’s objective after the fall of these two cities.
If they push, the Russians may even drive further south to the Ukrainian port of Dnipro. On the other hand, if their troops get exhausted, Russians may end their “special military operation”.
This unilateral ceasefire may fizzle out western support for Ukraine, with France and Germany pushing for peace. And if Ukraine’s western allies leave it to Russian terms, the resultant turmoil may favour Moscow more than Kyiv. Ukraine may continue to fight, but it would be useless.
What will Ukraine do Now?
The Ukrainian withdrawal from Lysychanks means that Kyiv is buying time for western arms to come by. “ Our troops have retreated more ted to more fortified positions.
We held the defence of Luhansk for five months. While that defence was holding, we were building new fortifications in the Donetsk region. Now the troops have gone there”, days Serhiy Haidai.
Much of a renewed Ukrainian offensive depends on the arrival of western weapons. US and UK have promised them HIMARS and other assorted missile systems.
Meanwhile, Germany has sent a few of its tanks and self-propelled artillery to Ukraine. France too has pledged to send its artillery systems to Kyiv.
The only thing the Ukrainians can do is buy more time till western weapons are adequate to launch a counter-offensive.
(Inputs BBC)
