Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test during the China Congress?

Expectations are growing that Pyongyang would soon conduct a nuclear test, threatening its relations with its closest ally. 

When North Korea conducted its most recent nuclear test on September 3, 2017, China’s President Xi Jinping was preparing to host the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa at a summit aimed at enhancing his image as a global statesman ahead of a crucial Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress. 

The blast from the underground detonation, Pyongyang‘s sixth such test, generated a magnitude 6.3 earthquake that rattled residences near the North Korea-China border and reignited fears of nuclear contamination in the region. It also caused a 3.5-meter movement on the slopes of the mountain where North Korea’s subterranean test sites were located (11.5 feet). 

The test, which Pyongyang declared a “complete success” and said involved a hydrogen bomb, culminated in months of rapid weapon launches, including long-range missiles capable of hitting the continental United States. 

Analysts in China and the United States instantly criticized the nuclear test as an “insult” to Beijing, North Korea’s longtime ally and key trading partner, as well as a “diplomatic humiliation” for Xi, who was poised to be confirmed for a second term as the Communist Party’s head at the time. 

China responded by joining US-led UN Security Council sanctions that cut off North Korea’s fuel sources and demanded the return of 100,000 North Korean workers whose labour abroad was funding their government’s nuclear programme. 

However, North Korea’s military goals have only intensified in the last five years. 

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, has intensified the development of nuclear and missile weapons since denuclearisation talks with former US President Donald Trump collapsed in 2019. This year, Kim personally oversaw the launch of hypersonic and intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as the passage of new legislation authorising preemptive nuclear attacks if an imminent attack on North Korean vital assets and leadership is detected. 

There is a sense of déjà vu among North Korean watchers as fears of a sixth North Korean nuclear test mount just as China’s ruling Communist Party prepares for its five-yearly session this month, where Xi is anticipated to be elected to an extraordinary third term. Last week, South Korea’s spy agency informed the country’s legislators that the new nuclear test could take place between October 16 — the first day of a meeting of some 2,300 Communist Party delegates in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People — and November 7, when the United States holds its midterm elections. 

Some analysts were initially sceptical of that opinion. 

“If Kim Jong Un conducts this test during the Communist Party Congress, it would be considered a real slap against China,” said Einar Tangen, a Beijing-based analyst, noting that the two countries only recently resumed freight train services after a five-month suspension due to North Korea’s COVID-19 outbreak. “To the extent that they do it, it will be around the US elections because North Korea is more anxious about a US response right now,” he added, referring to Kim’s long-standing demands that Washington ease severe international sanctions. 

Others, though, argue that Kim is unconcerned about China’s opinions and that his only concern is reaching his goal of an operational nuclear missile, which he claims is the only deterrent against “hostile forces.” 

Keeping a blind eye 

On Tuesday, North Korea conducted its longest-range missile test ever, sending a projectile soaring over Japan and activating warning sirens in northern areas of the neighbouring country. Pyongyang last fired a missile over Japan in 2017, just a week before testing its nuclear bomb. 

It said it launched two short-range missiles on Thursday in reaction to US and South Korean military drills. 
It is likely that North Korea will strive to avoid provocations until the CCP Congress concludes. ” That hope has already been broken by North Korea’s Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile launch over Japan,” said Ellen Kim, a senior fellow at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “North Korea appears to have lost interest in China’s most important political event this year, highlighting Pyongyang’s unpredictability once more.” 

Analysts were also divided on whether and how China would respond if North Korea conducted a seventh nuclear test. 

According to Jaechun Kim, a professor of international relations at Sogang University in Seoul, North Korean nuclear testing could “destabilize the security situation in Northeast Asia” and provide a reason for the US to move strategic military assets to the region, including returning tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, where it has had military bases and troops since the Korean War ended in 1953. 

“China is dissatisfied with Russia’s war in Ukraine.” “They don’t want another complication in Northeast Asia,” he said, especially as tensions with the US over Taiwan’s self-rule escalate. 

However, according to Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, global tensions surrounding the Ukraine conflict may be holding China back on North Korea. 

Lee believes a North Korean nuclear test is more plausible before the CCP Congress, possibly around October 10, the Workers Party’s foundation anniversary. 

The Chinese will be furious if Kim Jong Un conducts a nuclear test around October 10. They will, however, move on. They have a more essential function to attend to. So North Korea’s nuclear test, which is probably an insult to China and everyone else, will be ignored, and there will be no repercussions, “he added, saying that Beijing has failed to act against North Korea despite a record number of weapons tests this year. 

China, along with Russia, blocked a US-sponsored resolution calling for tougher UN sanctions against North Korea in May. 

“China will issue an apology statement,” Lee said. “North Korea has flagrantly violated ten UN Security Council resolutions prohibiting the development and testing of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.” ” And what about China? What action has Russia taken? 

“They’ve turned a blind eye to it, with no fresh UN sanctions resolutions. ” As a result, North Korea understands that it may carry out these actions with impunity.” (Source: Al Jazeera)

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