As Brazil prepares to vote in a presidential run-off on Oct. 30, the surveys continue to show Bolsonaro trailing his left-wing rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president, although the race seems to be tightening.
The polls were inaccurate in the first round of this month’s keenly watched elections in Brazil. They vastly overestimated the backing given to other conservative contenders nationwide as well as the far-right incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro. Many on the right were incensed and accused the pollsters of being disconnected from the Brazilian electorate.
Presidential Election of Brazil
Every four years, Brazil holds general elections in which the president, governors, and some senators are chosen in addition to state and federal legislators. The remaining senators, municipal council members, and mayors are likewise elected every four years, although in different years.
In Brazil, there is no restriction on the number of times a person can be elected president, but they are only allowed to hold office for two terms in a row. Da Silva, who served as president from 2003 to 2010, can therefore run this year.
In the presidential election of Brazil 2 prominent contestants are competing with each other, and rivals of these two could usher in another 4 years of far-right politics or return a leftist to the nation’s top job.
The current president, Jair Bolsonaro, is on one side. A former army captain, he amassed a fervent following as a conservative culture warrior. He has used public cash in what is largely believed to be an effort to secure late votes. His opponent, former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has made an effort to arouse fond memories of his time in office when he presided over an economic upswing and social inclusion.
Brazil’s president attacks his country’s voting system
Leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ended up ahead of far-right current president Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election on October 2, but he was unable to win an absolute majority. On October 30, there will be a runoff between the two contenders.
Bolsonaro, who has spent months claiming that Brazil’s elections are fixed and that electronic voting machines can’t be trusted, fared better than polls had indicated in the first round. Nevertheless, the former president continued to raise the possibility that the results had been tampered with.
After the voting, Bolsonaro remarked, “There’s always a chance of something unusual happening in a fully digitized system.
Election in Brazil
Brazil holds general elections once every four years, choosing state and federal representatives as well as the president, governors, and some senators. Mayors, councilor sailors, and remaining senators are also chosen every four years, but in different years.
There is no limit to the number of times one can be elected president in Brazil, but the person can only serve two consecutive terms. That is why da Silva, who was president from 2003 to 2010, can run this year. What’s happening in Brazil?
On October 2, Brazil held its first round of elections to choose state and federal lawmakers. Candidates for governor who received more than 50% of the total votes cast, excluding spoiled and blank ballots, were also recognized.
Da Silva and Bolsonaro, who received 48% and 43% of the votes, respectively, will face off in the presidential runoff because none of the 11 contenders received an absolute majority. The backlash resulted from polls that gravely undervalued the president’s and his allies’ popularity.
Lula won more votes in the first part of the elections, but Bolsonaro had a stronger-than-expected showing. With neither candidate crossing the 50% vote threshold, the election had to go to a runoff. Lula is favored to win, but polling has proved less than reliable so far. But, things might get murky from there.
Bolsonaro’s coalition is still expected to control majorities in both chambers of Brazil’s National Congress, and it’s unclear whether Bolsonaro will give up power. He’s already spread false allegations about secret vote counting and rigged voting machines, leading to high levels of mistrust in the electoral process.
Bolsonaro has already said he won’t accept a result that isn’t a win and laid out some objectively morbid alternatives.
Is it going to be a Crime to incorrectly forecast an election?
Some of Brazil’s top officials are now attempting to make it illegal to predict an election incorrectly at Bolsonaro’s urging.
The publication of a poll that is later revealed to be outside its margin of error would be illegal, according to a bill that has been expedited by Brazil’s House of Representatives. The legislation is anticipated to be voted on and approved in the next few days by the House, which is under the control of Bolsonaro’s friends.
It’s unknown how the law will turn out in the end. The legislation’s changes in the Senate, where Bolsonaro’s opponents hold a majority, seem significantly less assured, and House leaders have hinted that they may soften it.
Ricardo Barros, a conservative lawmaker who is supporting the idea to make erroneous polls illegal, claimed that it will compel polling organizations to be more cautious with their conclusions. Only polls that deviate from their margin of error would be held accountable under the proposed law.
Whatever the outcome of the proposal, it and other initiatives to look into pollsters for recent errors in judgment are part of a larger narrative that Bolsonaro and his allies are pushing without any supporting data: that the left and Brazil’s political establishment are trying to rig the election against him.
Response against the claim
In response to the claim, through a statement, the Brazilian Association of Pollsters expressed its “outrage” over proposals to make faulty surveys illegal.
The group claimed that beginning this kind of probe during the runoff campaign when the polling firms are conducting their work, “demonstrates another clear attempt to hinder scientific study.”
Polling companies emphasized that their goal was to provide a glimpse of voters’ intentions at the time a survey was performed rather than to anticipate elections.
There are other initiatives aimed against pollsters besides the measure in Congress. Brazil’s justice minister granted a request by Bolsonaro’s campaign to the federal police to launch an inquiry into polling companies over their pre-election surveys. Additionally, Brazil’s federal antitrust commission launched its investigation into alleged collusion at some of the largest polling organizations in the country.
Both of those investigations were swiftly put on hold by Supreme Court justice and head of Brazil’s elections Alexandre de Moraes, who ruled that they were both out of bounds and seemed to be acting at the president’s political whim. Moraes in turn commanded Brazil’s electoral commission to look into any potential improper use of Bolsonaro’s authority over federal entities.
Brazil is far from the only country where polls struggle to give an accurate picture of the electorate, particularly the strength of conservative support.
The credibility of Brazil’s polling firms was damaged after the election’s first round, and some journalists have become more hesitant to share surveys before Sunday’s runoff.
