Leading climate experts from around the world came to this conclusion, but owing to discrepancies in climate model results, they were unable to quantify how the crisis contributed to the occurrence.
An intense “one in a 100-year downpour” event, which was made substantially more likely by the climate catastrophe, is what triggered the floods that destroyed major sections of Pakistan last month, leaving tens of thousands homeless and almost 1,500 people dead. WWA, a network of leading climate scientists worldwide, was unable to determine how the crisis made the event possible due to variations in the output of climate models.
For Sindh and Baluchistan, Pakistan’s two worst-affected provinces, WWA looked at the highest rainfall over a 60-day span from June to September as well as the highest rainfall within a five-day span. The 60-day rainfall across the basin is currently around 50% more intense than it would have been had the climate not warmed by 1.2 degrees C, while the 5-day maximum rainfall across Sindh and Balochistan is currently about 75% more intense, according to a statement released by WWA on Thursday. This suggests that it is now more probable to experience this level of rainfall.
These estimates are highly questionable due to the broad variability in rainfall in the region, and the observed variations could be brought on by a variety of factors, including but not limited to climate change.
In order to determine the contribution of human-induced climate change, WWA compared the trends in climate models with and without the human-induced increases in greenhouse gases.
The region is situated at the western edge of the monsoon and its rainfall pattern is extremely variable from year to year. The researchers found that current climate models are not entirely capable of predicting monsoon rainfall in the Indus river basin. As a result, they were unable to correctly measure the impact of climate change as was achievable in earlier studies of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves.
Although the analysis prevented assessing the occurrence’s extent, Friederike Otto, a member of the WWA, presented facts to support her hypothesis that climate change may have had a significant impact on the catastrophe. This is due to the region’s extremely variable weather, which makes it challenging to detect long-term patterns in observable data and climate models, according to Otto.
This suggests that there is a great deal of mathematical ambiguity. However, the likelihood of each result occurring inside the uncertainty range differs. Long-term climatic predictions are exactly in line with what we saw in Pakistan. It also agrees with historical data, which indicates a substantial increase in severe rainfall.
As a result of rainfall that was more than three times the average, August was the wettest month for Pakistan since 1961. In Sindh and Baluchistan, which received seven and eight times the usual monthly rainfall, August was the wettest ever recorded.
On August 25, Pakistan proclaimed a state of emergency after initial damages were believed to have exceeded $30 billion USD.
Floods in Pakistan and India followed a period of extreme heat stress. According to WWA in May, the two countries’ March to April spring heatwave stretch was approximately 30 times more likely to occur as a result of human-caused climate change.
Their short analysis found that the extraordinarily long-lasting and early-onset heatwave episode that affected Pakistan and India is highly rare, with a probability of occurring just once per hundred years.
Their short analysis found that the extraordinarily long-lasting and early-onset heatwave episode that affected Pakistan and India is highly rare, with a probability of occurring just once per hundred years.
The opening of the UNGA was on Tuesday, but the WWA’s flood analysis wasn’t released until several days later. Climate change experts held a briefing on Thursday where they highlighted how the world’s most vulnerable countries continue to be impacted by rising global prices and climate repercussions. The UNGA is anticipated to make a decision regarding the urgency of making up for loss and damage or paying for the consequences of significant climate change events.
According to Kelkar, there was a lot of anger about the subject at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021. (COP26). “Last year, we were advised that the anticipated 100 billion dollars from wealthy nations would be delayed. This was before the Ukraine situation. It now appears that delivery will be significantly later. Currently, hard currency is desperately needed, and developing nations need wealthy nations to recognise their loss and damage and stand in solidarity with them.The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres spoke on adaptability on Wednesday. 80% of emissions are produced by G20 countries. Additionally, they are coping with the effects of previously unheard-of fires, floods, and droughts, while progress on climate change seems to be stalling. If one-third of the G20 countries were already submerged, as they might be tomorrow, perhaps it would be easier to agree on big reductions in emissions. All countries, with the G20 leading the way, must raise their national emissions reduction targets each year until we can limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees.
