CIA chief Bill Burns said that China has to re-think its invasion of Taiwan. The invasion of Ukraine has allowed China to learn and strategize its ambition.
“We sense that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it,” said Bill Burns on Wednesday. Appearing at a security forum, Burns speculated about the possible future invasion of Taiwan, emphasizing the lessons learnt from the Russia-Ukraine war.
China and Taiwan
Taiwan is a democratically governed island nation, which separated from the Chinese mainland after the civil war in 1949. China claims the island nation as its own.
Taiwan has always been an important issue for Chinese nationalists.
Naturally, many see it as a part of the mainland and seek its return or ‘reunification’. Burns noted on the issue at the Aspen Forum softened its possibility. “I wouldn’t underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert China’s control”. According to him, China was disturbed by Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. He sees it as a failure himself as Putin had initially planned Kyiv’s fall within a week.
Herein lies a lesson for China which plans to ‘reunify’ with Taiwan as well. As Burns puts it, “I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you’ve got to amass overwhelming force if you’re going to contemplate that in the future,”. Coming from the CIA head, these words hold a lot of significance as they might prove to be accurate predictions coming from experience.
China has upped the ante with its military might in creating an atmosphere of war since Tsai Ing-Wen came to power . Ing-Wen is an ardent supporter of the separate identity of Taiwan.
America and Taiwan
America is one of its major business partners in Taiwan, in terms of weapons supply. Between 1992 and 2019 Taiwan bought F16 fighter jets from the U.S. China lately has been more assertive in its stance towards Taiwan, especially towards America. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island nation invited China’s wrath as it threatened “forceful measures” if Pelosi’s trip went on. The US is legally bound to support Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty under Taiwan Act. However, Washington maintains the status of ‘strategic ambiguity when it comes to Taiwan. In the other words, if a war were to break out, Taiwan (not unlike Ukraine) will be left to its own devices.
Likelihood of a war
The relations between the two states have been far from cordial since the spilt in 1949. Taiwan suspended trade activities with the mainland since the pandemic began. Its military and air force have been on their toes as China continues to breach its airspace. In recent times, six H-bombers and 17 fighters entered its airspace, only for the Taiwanese aircraft to drive them away. Apart from this, China has also been conducting military exercises and even electronic warfare. All of this was a response to Tsai Ing-Wen’s political stance on Taiwan’s separate identity. The mere mention of Taiwan’s independence is enough to draw China’s ire.
While it may seem like, given the situation in Ukraine, the atmosphere for war is very conducive in the Indo-Pacific, that is unlikely for now. As President Xi Jinping is facing challenges at home, with inflation on the rise and banks on the verge of bankruptcy, an invasion might not be on the cards for China just yet.
Given all this, Bill Burns’ prediction about China and Taiwan might just come true someday.
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