Vladimir Putin is pushing these countries to back his war with Ukraine 

Russia is attempting to undermine democracies all over Europe, channeling funds and backing far-right groups and propaganda operations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to cast his ambitions further afield in spite of prosecuting his vicious and failing war in Ukraine. Putin has discovered fertile ground in the Balkans, taking his view that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is looking to marginalise the Russian, Slavic, Eastern Orthodox world. Serbia, the most pivotal former Yugoslav state which isn’t a NATO member, takes the centre of these efforts.

Within the complicated politics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to cultivate support.

So how will Russia’s efforts be countered by the West? The estimated 3,500 remaining peacekeeping forces are essential, but not determinative. The actual and real competition has shifted from economic engagement to information warfare.

On the information side, Moscow has an upper hand. It is in depth involved in spreading false narratives related to the war, looking to portray Russia’s special military operation as a pan-slavic mission to unite Ukrainians (who are Slavs themselves) with Russia. 

This is working well not only on the far right but also among the population. A poll in June showed that more than half of Serbians said NATO is to be blamed for the war, and only 10% thought that Russia is culpable.

Moscow has less to offer in terms of economic incentives. Serbian exports to Europe are almost 15 times greater than those to Russia, and would drastically increase with EU membership. Serbia and Bosnia are looking to maintain their nationals’ ability to travel without visas in the EU but Russia is being shut out.

Russia will not stop driving a wedge between the West and the Balkans. Serbia and Bosnia need to understand that while Russia can give natural gas supplies, it is a tactical desire that falls short in comparison to the value of board membership with Western Europe.

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